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Welcome to the merchandiser commentary section of our website.  Here you will find commentary from our merchandisers on the trends of the grain we handle.  Check back weekly for new commentary.  Please use the links on the right hand side of this page to navigate the commentaries.
Merchandiser Comments
Corn Comments - Kyle Fost...
Millet/Sunflower/Milo Com...
Wheat Comments - Joe Chri...
Weekly Market Recap
Wheat Comment 5/14/2018

The selloff in wheat continues, we took out the first support and are working on the second support down at $5.04 to $4.96 in the KC July. The commitment of traders report showed the funds huge buyers of wheat through last Wednesday. We were down every day from Friday, which had to bunch all that buying on Wednesday and Thursday of the previous week. Something is not correct I would look for a correction next week. Basis levels continue to firm as car costs have slowed country loading. Export sales continue to be very slow with even Mexico buying Black Sea wheat. I would hope that a 50/60 cent selloff would help that situation. We will see this and next Thursday. With higher wheat export rates, higher car costs than last year and the VSR in KC Hard wheat exports could be slow in the first quarter. That is usually our best quarter. Basis could be very choppy this harvest with the country having little incentive to ship while the export book could be very small. I think the Kansas estimate could adjust smaller along with other states. We may have seen our biggest Hard Red Winter estimate for this year. That could keep the futures choppy for a while. Technically, it looks like we will test our April lows just below $5. We probably need to test those levels and lower to beef up our export book. With the larger crop forecast Calendar spreads should tend to widen. There is still over 100 million bushels in delivery positions against KC futures. The KC/Chicago will remain range bound for the time being, KC strong against declining crop conditions but limited to the top side by poor demand.

Joe Christopher

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